NOAA's winter outlook: wet South and California, warm North

Probability that December 2026–February 2027 falls in the favored category, from NOAA's outlook issued September 17, 2026. Darker shading means higher odds; white means equal chances. The next update is due October 15.

Show the data as a table

Outlook	Favored category	Probability bin (lower edge)
Precipitation	Above	33%+
Precipitation	Above	40%+
Precipitation	Above	50%+
Precipitation	Above	60%+
Precipitation	Above	70%+
Precipitation	Below	33%+
Precipitation	Below	40%+
Temperature	Above	33%+
Temperature	Above	40%+
Temperature	Above	50%+
Temperature	Normal	33%+