A simplified picture of the average pattern. Individual storms, weeks and even whole winters can break it.
| Change in a strong El Niño winter | Typical effect |
|---|---|
| Extra heating over the warm equatorial Pacific | Strengthens the subtropical jet |
| Subtropical jet extends east to the southwestern US | More storms across California, the Southwest and the Gulf Coast |
| Storm track shifts south | Less stormy across the northern US and western Canada |
| Deeper Aleutian Low, shifted east | Milder Pacific air into the Northwest; less Arctic air from Canada |