2026 is running second only to 1997 — and is forecast to set a new record

Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI, °C), three-month averages, from the start of each event's onset year. The shaded band is NOAA's October forecast for 2026.

2026 observed2026 CPC forecast (middle 50% / 90%)1997-982015-161972-73, 1982-83, 2023-24

Data: NOAA Climate Prediction Center — RONI (ERSSTv6) and RONI outlook issued October 2026.DisasterAWARE

Show the data as a table

Season	1972-73	1982-83	1997-98	2015-16	2023-24	2026-27	2026 CPC forecast median (5–95%)
DJF (onset yr)	-0.21	0.11	-0.21	0.54	-0.86	-0.91
JFM (onset yr)	0.03	0.22	-0.03	0.47	-0.68	-0.76
FMA (onset yr)	0.32	0.23	0.17	0.59	-0.55	-0.44
MAM (onset yr)	0.51	0.46	0.47	0.72	-0.31	-0.04
AMJ (onset yr)	0.66	0.74	0.83	0.89	-0.04	0.49
MJJ (onset yr)	0.87	0.84	1.2	1.02	0.28	0.97
JJA (onset yr)	1.14	0.89	1.5	1.27	0.54	1.36
JAS (onset yr)	1.4	1.14	1.84	1.54	0.79	1.69
ASO (onset yr)	1.64	1.64	2.07	1.8	1.04		in progress (not in CPC outlook)
SON (onset yr)	1.82	2.03	2.22	2.03	1.3		2.47 (2.18–2.76)
OND (onset yr)	1.97	2.24	2.25	2.18	1.42		2.74 (2.25–3.23)
NDJ (onset yr)	1.88	2.36	2.28	2.25	1.4		2.65 (2.00–3.31)
DJF (next yr)	1.69	2.4	2.13	2.14	1.13		2.36 (1.58–3.14)
JFM (next yr)	1.25	2.15	1.82	1.81	0.78		1.90 (1.13–2.67)
FMA (next yr)	0.58	1.67	1.22	1.3	0.42		1.33 (0.66–2.00)
MAM (next yr)	-0.17	1.3	0.81	0.65	0.04		0.83 (0.23–1.43)
AMJ (next yr)	-0.73	0.87	0.07	0.08	-0.28		0.40 (-0.22–1.02)
MJJ (next yr)	-0.98	0.47	-0.46	-0.43	-0.45		0.03 (-0.68–0.74)