Forecast peak of the Niño-3.4 index by model, from the IRI multi-model plume published September 21, 2026. This is the traditional index, which currently reads 0.7–0.9°C higher than NOAA's official relative index.
| Model | Type | Peak (°C) | Peak season |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMCC SPS4 | dynamical | 4.66 | DJF |
| XRO | statistical | 4.28 | NDJ |
| AUS-ACCESS | dynamical | 4.13 | OND |
| CMC CANSIP | dynamical | 4.08 | OND |
| JMA | dynamical | 4.05 | NDJ |
| MetFRANCE | dynamical | 3.96 | OND |
| KMA | dynamical | 3.60 | OND |
| NCEP CFSv2 | dynamical | 3.59 | OND |
| NASA GMAOv3 | dynamical | 3.56 | NDJ |
| SINTEX-F | dynamical | 3.51 | OND |
| Wyrtki-CSLIM | statistical | 3.49 | NDJ |
| UCLA-TCD | statistical | 3.48 | NDJ |
| UW PSL-CSLIM | statistical | 3.42 | NDJ |
| BCC_RZDM | statistical | 3.41 | NDJ |
| CPC MRKOV | statistical | 3.41 | NDJ |
| COLA CCSM4 | dynamical | 3.36 | OND |
| CS-IRI-MM | dynamical | 3.29 | NDJ |
| UKMO | dynamical | 3.27 | OND |
| CSU CLIPR | statistical | 2.96 | DJF |
| UW PSL-LIM | statistical | 2.82 | OND |
| IAP-NN | statistical | 2.71 | SON |
| IOCAS ICM | dynamical | 2.66 | SON |
| LDEO | dynamical | 2.43 | OND |
| TONGJI-ML | statistical | 2.34 | JFM |